Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she’s had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren’t enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan’s favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole’s slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it’s unclear whether the flap over the ‘godless’ ad had an effect one way or the other.
Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kay Hagan (D): 42
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that’s where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll… this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon’s focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it’s the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.
UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.
National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kay Hagan (D): 43
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)
especially if the poll was in the field before Rasmussen’s.
I’ll believe Hagan has taken a hit when I see it confirmed somewhere else. It seems that the “Godless” ad is backfiring on Dole.
Bluntly, Mason-Dixon sucks balls this cycle. They have a poll out today of McCain within 4 points of Obama in PA. They showed a tied race in Michigan only to have the old man pull out because their internals were beyond terrible. Finally, they put a crap poll showing the NH Senate race tied.
As my fav Alaskan governor would say, thanks but no thanks M-D.
http://www.wral.com/asset/news…
They only polled blacks at 20%, and had whites at 78%. Blacks make up 21% of the voters in NC, and whites are 75%. Plus, having Obama atop the ballot will drive black turnout even higher.
The DEM/GOP/IND breakdown was 47-36-17. The actual breakdown is 46-32-22.
These factors have overstated Dole’s numbers and understated Hagan’s. I also think there is going to be a big pushback against Dole’s godless ad. Hagan’s response is excellent.
But of three polls, it’s the only one giving Dole a lead, and a significant one, so I do not think it’s right.
That Dole ran, that’s not an ad you run if your winning.
That’s a hail mary and I think Hagan is running it back for a touchdown with her response.